San Francisco
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
51  Mohamed Aziz SR 31:31
84  Ben Alcock SR 31:41
109  Jack Rowe JR 31:49
203  Jacob Allen JR 32:10
454  Hugh Nicklason SO 32:44
496  Caleb McClain JR 32:50
515  Alexander Howard JR 32:52
699  Scott Halsted JR 33:12
986  Leo Donlea FR 33:37
1,011  Isaias DeLeon FR 33:39
National Rank #22 of 315
West Region Rank #6 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 51.9%
Most Likely Finish 17th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.2%
Top 10 at Nationals 4.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 33.4%


Regional Champion 0.1%
Top 5 in Regional 25.7%
Top 10 in Regional 99.8%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Mohamed Aziz Ben Alcock Jack Rowe Jacob Allen Hugh Nicklason Caleb McClain Alexander Howard Scott Halsted Leo Donlea Isaias DeLeon
Roy Griak Invitational 09/23 652 31:15 31:22 35:22 33:23 32:44 33:04 32:30 33:27 33:37
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 666 31:44 32:18 32:00 32:26 32:24 33:06
West Coast Conference 10/27 572 31:09 31:48 32:16 32:14 34:27 32:28 33:03 33:47 33:43
West Region Championships 11/10 580 31:53 31:31 31:31 32:48 32:33 32:53 34:51





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 51.9% 18.3 480 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.9 3.3 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.4 2.7 2.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.4
Region Championship 100% 6.5 176 0.1 0.5 2.7 8.0 14.5 22.4 22.4 21.9 6.4 1.1 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mohamed Aziz 83.0% 54.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.2
Ben Alcock 69.3% 70.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6
Jack Rowe 62.1% 91.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Jacob Allen 52.0% 141.3
Hugh Nicklason 51.9% 213.6
Caleb McClain 52.1% 221.2
Alexander Howard 51.9% 223.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mohamed Aziz 12.3 0.7 2.0 2.5 4.2 5.3 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.6 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.9 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.1 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.3 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.5
Ben Alcock 19.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.9 3.5 4.1 3.8 3.9 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.2
Jack Rowe 24.7 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.5 4.4 3.7 3.0 2.8 2.6 3.5 2.6 3.1 2.6 2.6
Jacob Allen 41.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.6
Hugh Nicklason 70.6
Caleb McClain 76.9
Alexander Howard 78.5




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 1
2 0.5% 100.0% 0.5 0.5 2
3 2.7% 98.1% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.0 2.7 3
4 8.0% 96.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.2 0.3 0.3 7.7 4
5 14.5% 87.5% 0.4 0.8 1.1 2.9 2.5 3.8 1.4 1.8 12.7 5
6 22.4% 69.4% 0.2 1.2 2.5 4.0 5.5 2.3 6.9 15.6 6
7 22.4% 39.7% 0.6 1.3 3.5 3.6 13.5 8.9 7
8 21.9% 16.7% 0.3 0.5 3.0 18.2 3.7 8
9 6.4% 3.1% 0.2 6.2 0.2 9
10 1.1% 1.1 10
11 0.2% 0.2 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 51.9% 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.8 3.3 7.4 10.1 15.9 10.7 48.2 0.6 51.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Illinois 56.1% 1.0 0.6
Eastern Kentucky 38.0% 1.0 0.4
Penn 37.5% 1.0 0.4
Boise State 37.1% 1.0 0.4
Navy 32.9% 1.0 0.3
Wisconsin 26.1% 1.0 0.3
Florida State 23.7% 1.0 0.2
Purdue 22.8% 1.0 0.2
Tulsa 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Eastern Michigan 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 4.0% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 1.0% 1.0 0.0
California 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Total 3.0
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 7.0